Yeya Lake Wetlands are the largest site for wintering birds in Beijing, where common cranes (Grus grus) winters every year. The land cover of the wetlands has undergone distinct changes from 2006 to 2009 as a result of human activities. In 2006, a survey of the presence/absence of the birds was completed using a line-transect method. A predictive model of habitat suitability was derived by using logistic regression and geographic information system. Then, this habitat suitability model was applied in 2009 under the land use change to test the effectiveness of the model and compare the habitat suitability between 2 years. The negative associations between Grus grus presence and increasing elevation, distances to grassland, to farmland, to bush, and to road suggested a preference for low lying areas in close proximity to food and cover. While the positive associations with distances to buildings and to water suggested a preference for low disturbance areas. The areas of suitable habitats increased from 2006 to 2009, and the spatial model was effective in both years. Habitat preference of Grus grus varied in land use types, therefore habitat suitability dynamics might possibly relate to land use change and thereby be predictable through a geographic information system approach. Although the obtained model had a good fit in both years, it was suspected that if frequent human activities continued, the number of Grus grus might decrease or disappear in this area. According to the field survey, the spacious water area was essential for wintering birds and the risks from loss of lake water and unfavorable crop practices might dramatically change the quality of each type of land use.
