Abstract:
Hydrological connectivity plays a vital role in maintaining ecosystem stability and enhancing biodiversity within wetland systems. It critically influences material cycles, energy flows, and biological migration pathways both within individual wetlands and across interconnected complexes. Land use types constitute a significant factor in altering wetland hydrological connectivity, profoundly shaping its spatial patterns. Simultaneously, climatic factors serve as direct drivers of hydrological connectivity changes in wetlands, predominantly manifesting their influence across temporal scales. Quantitative assessment of hydrological connectivity and analysis of its driving factors have emerged as prominent research foci. However, the absence of a standardized evaluation framework for hydrological connectivity hinders a comprehensive understanding and practical application by researchers. This limitation is particularly evident in the relatively scarce body of research dedicated to integrated assessments of hydrological connectivity across large spatial scales and extended temporal sequences. Consequently, there is a critical need to conduct quantitative analyses utilizing long-term hydrological data. Such analyses aim to elucidate the temporal dynamics and evolutionary patterns of hydrological connectivity, thereby enabling the investigation of the underlying mechanisms through which diverse factors influence connectivity. This approach not only advances fundamental knowledge of the intrinsic nature and governing principles of hydrological connectivity but also provides robust scientific underpinning for the scientific management and decision-making processes related to water resources. In recent decades, the Naoli River Basin has experienced significant ecological degradation due to intensified human activities and climate change, leading to various environmental challenges. Increased flood frequency has further disrupted the basin's inherent hydrological connectivity, undermining its stability. This study quantifies wetland hydrological connectivity and explores its driving mechanisms using water body data extracted via Google Earth Engine (GEE) from 1990 to 2020. We employed geostatistical connectivity functions and inundation frequency analysis to assess spatiotemporal dynamics. The results of the study show that a clear trend of increasing hydrological connectivity and inundation frequency emerged over time. The basin's Hydrological Connectivity Index rose from 0.11 (1990-1999) to 0.22 (2000-2009), reaching 0.28 (2010-2020). Concurrently, the total inundated area expanded from 722.93 km
2 (1990-1999) to
1053.41 km
2 (2010-2020). The midstream and downstream reaches exhibited high hydrological dynamism, with frequent water body reorganization and a tendency to form large connected patches. Notably, extensive connected water bodies of 613.47 km
2 (2019) and 587.18 km
2 (2020) formed in these areas. Inundation frequency displayed a distinct "high in the northeast, low in the southwest" spatial pattern, reflecting underlying topographic controls. Land use conversion (especially to agriculture) and climate change (increased precipitation) are primary drivers enhancing connectivity and altering its spatial configuration. However, land use homogenization has reduced the basin's ecological regulation capacity. Crucially, heightened connectivity combined with rising rainfall elevates flood disaster risk by facilitating rapid floodwater transmission across the landscape. The findings offer a scientific foundation for planning connectivity restoration projects and implementing sustainable management strategies to enhance ecological resilience in the Naoli River Basin.