Simulation of potential spatial-temporal distribution of Black Storks and their responses to future climate change scenarios in China

Black Stork (Ciconia nigra), a globally rare wetland aquatic ecologically pivotal indicator species, plays an irreplaceable role in maintaining wetland ecosystem balance. This study utilized the Kuenm package to optimize the parameters of the MaxEnt model, created an optimal habitat suitability simulation. By employing 839 filtered occurrence records and 14 environmental variables, we modeled the potential suitable habitats for Black Stork under current climatic conditions and two future periods (2041-2060 and 2061-2080), each with two climate scenarios (BCC-CSM2-MR-SSP126 and BCC-CSM2-MR-SSP585). This study simulated the spatiote-mporal distribution patterns of Black Storks in China and their responses to future climate change scenarios, and further identified the directional shifts of high suitability centroids under future climate change scenarios. The findings indicated that the potential geographical distribution of Black Stork in China was a synergistic outcome influenced by multifarious factors, including anthropogenic activities, elevation, wetland habitat types, transportation networks, vegetation and precipitation. Anthropogenic activities emerged as the primary determinant of Black Stork’s geographic distribution in China, acting in concert with altitudinal gradients and wetland habitat types to predominantly shape its distribution patterns. From the current climate to the period of 2061-2080, the highly suitable areas for Black Stork in China exhibit a moderate expansion or slight contraction. Overall, the geographic range of Black Stork remains relatively stable under future climate change scenarios, indicating a certain degree of adaptability to climatic shifts. Compared to the current climate scenario, the centroids of highly suitable areas for Black Stork under future SSP126 and SSP585 climate scenarios initially migrate towards the northwest and subsequently towards the south. Future highly suitable areas exhibit an overall tendency to shift towards warmer and wetter northwestern regions. This research provides insights and implications for understanding the large-scale migration processes, patterns, and mechanisms of Black Stork under the influence of climate change and anthropogenic activities.